Sanders, Before Seed, Beyond Harvest
OptiGro Location.

Weather

  • Currently

    Reported at Greenville, Greenville Municipal Airport, MS
    4:16 AM CST MON FEB 27 2017
  • 48°F9°C
  • Rain
    Rain
  • Feels Like:48°F9°CDew Point:46°F8°CHumidity:94% Winds:NE 13 mph 21 kph
    Pressure:30.06 in1018 hPaVisibility:4.00 miles6436.00 meters
  • Area Forecast Discussion

422 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tonight....

A complex of showers and thunderstorms, stretching from northwest
Tennessee through north Louisiana and associated with a weakening
upper shortwave that will quickly move eastward through the Ohio
Valley this morning, will continue to progress through the
ArkLaMiss today. This complex will continue to be fueled by the
moist air being advected into the region from the Gulf by the way
of a LLJ. Several WAA showers are possible in the southern
portions of the region ahead of the convective complex.

A limited threat of severe weather will exist from mid morning
through the afternoon hours along the southern portions of the
southwestward advancing convective complex where moderate elevated
instability will be present. MUCAPE in this region will range
from 500- 1000 j/kg in the early afternoon hours, with model
soundings depicting it in a long, skinny profile. A few strong
storms will be possible with the possibility of a severe storm.
The main threats with any storms south of I-20 today will be wind
and hail.

Chances of storms and rain will begin to wane by the early evening
hours as the complex begins to weaken as it reaches the SE border of
the CWA and upper heights begin to quickly rise. Latest guidance
suggest the ArkLaMiss will be rain free by late evening and
through most of the night. However, some light WAA showers will
be possible during the early morning hours as low level southerly
flow increases. Temperatures will range from the low 60s to low
70s today and won`t decrease much overnight.

Tuesday through Sunday:
The region will be firmly entrenched in a low level warm sector
dominated by mid 60s dewpoints and breezy low level winds Tuesday.
Weakly capped environment over northern portions during the
afternoon will allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop,
but further south the cap will be somewhat stronger requiring more
forcing to overcome it.

Mid level shortwave moving into TX by late afternoon with its
associated surface cold front moving into the ArkLaTex region will
help generate a squall line which will move into Ark/La after
midnight Tuesday night and approach the MS river prior to sunrise
Wednesday. Rather robust instability will be in place over the
region Wednesday morning with near 7 C/km mid level lapse rates,
near 30 vertical totals and MLCAPEs from 1000-1500 J/kg. Also,
0-1km shear of 30-40 knots and deep shear around 60 knots. While
some quarter size hail will be possible given the instability,
damaging wind will be the primary concern along with a few
tornadoes.

The convective line will clear the area by sunset with the clearing
line close behind as the atmosphere cools down in cold air
advection. After near record high in the upper 70s and lower 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday, about a 15 to 20 degree drop in maximums will
be felt through Saturday.

Surface high pressure will maintain its control over the region
through the end of the week, but will slide far enough east by
Saturday to begin bring moisture northward again with the
possibility of showers by Saturday night and Sunday./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
A complex of SHRA/TSRA continues to approach the region from NW
tonight and will progress through the entire area throughout the
period. Flight categories will deteriorate as the complex
approaches each site. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions to prevail with
some sites falling briefly to LIFR. Some improvement is expected
tomorrow afternoon but conditions will degrade once again late in
the period due to low CIGs and BR. /jpm3/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  65  81  66 /  81  20  23  23
Meridian      66  61  80  65 /  75  21  19  18
Vicksburg     71  66  83  68 /  82  23  24  25
Hattiesburg   70  66  82  66 /  68  21  13  14
Natchez       73  67  83  67 /  81  21  17  18
Greenville    67  62  79  66 /  81  34  34  41
Greenwood     66  61  81  67 /  79  33  31  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

JPM3/26