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CurrentlyReported at Greenville, Greenville Municipal Airport, MS
4:16 AM CST MON FEB 27 2017
- Feels Like:48°F9°CDew Point:46°F8°CHumidity:94%
Winds:NE 13 mph 21 kph
Pressure:30.06 in1018 hPaVisibility:4.00 miles6436.00 meters
422 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...
Today through tonight....
A complex of showers and thunderstorms, stretching from northwest
Tennessee through north Louisiana and associated with a weakening
upper shortwave that will quickly move eastward through the Ohio
Valley this morning, will continue to progress through the
ArkLaMiss today. This complex will continue to be fueled by the
moist air being advected into the region from the Gulf by the way
of a LLJ. Several WAA showers are possible in the southern
portions of the region ahead of the convective complex.
A limited threat of severe weather will exist from mid morning
through the afternoon hours along the southern portions of the
southwestward advancing convective complex where moderate elevated
instability will be present. MUCAPE in this region will range
from 500- 1000 j/kg in the early afternoon hours, with model
soundings depicting it in a long, skinny profile. A few strong
storms will be possible with the possibility of a severe storm.
The main threats with any storms south of I-20 today will be wind
Chances of storms and rain will begin to wane by the early evening
hours as the complex begins to weaken as it reaches the SE border of
the CWA and upper heights begin to quickly rise. Latest guidance
suggest the ArkLaMiss will be rain free by late evening and
through most of the night. However, some light WAA showers will
be possible during the early morning hours as low level southerly
flow increases. Temperatures will range from the low 60s to low
70s today and won`t decrease much overnight.
Tuesday through Sunday:
The region will be firmly entrenched in a low level warm sector
dominated by mid 60s dewpoints and breezy low level winds Tuesday.
Weakly capped environment over northern portions during the
afternoon will allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop,
but further south the cap will be somewhat stronger requiring more
forcing to overcome it.
Mid level shortwave moving into TX by late afternoon with its
associated surface cold front moving into the ArkLaTex region will
help generate a squall line which will move into Ark/La after
midnight Tuesday night and approach the MS river prior to sunrise
Wednesday. Rather robust instability will be in place over the
region Wednesday morning with near 7 C/km mid level lapse rates,
near 30 vertical totals and MLCAPEs from 1000-1500 J/kg. Also,
0-1km shear of 30-40 knots and deep shear around 60 knots. While
some quarter size hail will be possible given the instability,
damaging wind will be the primary concern along with a few
The convective line will clear the area by sunset with the clearing
line close behind as the atmosphere cools down in cold air
advection. After near record high in the upper 70s and lower 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday, about a 15 to 20 degree drop in maximums will
be felt through Saturday.
Surface high pressure will maintain its control over the region
through the end of the week, but will slide far enough east by
Saturday to begin bring moisture northward again with the
possibility of showers by Saturday night and Sunday./26/
06Z TAF discussion:
A complex of SHRA/TSRA continues to approach the region from NW
tonight and will progress through the entire area throughout the
period. Flight categories will deteriorate as the complex
approaches each site. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions to prevail with
some sites falling briefly to LIFR. Some improvement is expected
tomorrow afternoon but conditions will degrade once again late in
the period due to low CIGs and BR. /jpm3/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 69 65 81 66 / 81 20 23 23
Meridian 66 61 80 65 / 75 21 19 18
Vicksburg 71 66 83 68 / 82 23 24 25
Hattiesburg 70 66 82 66 / 68 21 13 14
Natchez 73 67 83 67 / 81 21 17 18
Greenville 67 62 79 66 / 81 34 34 41
Greenwood 66 61 81 67 / 79 33 31 36